A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Both composes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
