Everyday Homicides in the nation Decline 37% Under President Sheinbaum, Per Government Statistics

The mean count of everyday killings monthly in Mexico has decreased by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per recent administrative statistics. But, security experts have cautioned that murder numbers could fail to indicate enhanced countrywide security.

Significant Decline in Per-Day Figures

There was an average of almost 55 killings a day in November compared with almost 87 when Sheinbaum took the presidential office in the previous September. This information was shared by the chief of the country’s federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that we have seen in these months is very important,” the President stated, noting that in November the smallest figure of murders were registered for any single November in the past decade.

Historical Context and Official Strategy

Violent drug cartel rivalries, alongside the administration's heavily militarised efforts to confront the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s murder rate rise sharply in recent times. The figure reached a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the nation's official data agency.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide figure over 4x higher than the US. Since then, homicides have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 last year. The President has attributed her national security plan for an apparently sharper drop in killings in the current year.

At a news briefing in August, the head of state said: “We have a plan, there is tracking of the strategy, and we have detailed tracking locality by locality in certain cases. The plan is effective. And we have to keep working at it daily.”

The key elements of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy encompass:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s federal guard.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigation efforts.
• Greater collaboration between government authorities.

Analyst Skepticism and Data Concerns

Nevertheless, public safety experts urged caution that focusing solely on murder numbers to assess the situation of peace was misleading. This is especially true given the uptick in different crimes such as abductions.

“It would be positive information if this were a decrease, but I think we can’t just look at the murder numbers and conclude: ‘Alright, good,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican cartels. “I would be cautiously hopeful.”

As reported by the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, murders in total declined by over 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year compared with the same timeframe the previous year. But, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in certain regions have risen by up to 200%.

“Data on homicides is no longer reliable for estimating the context of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the ability or the inclination to correctly identify and classify bodies. Second, organized [criminals] … have the ability to hide violence through abductions.”

Vargas noted that relying on month-to-month means of everyday homicides was similarly concerning because it may hide days when there were notably high levels of murders.

“Employing the per-day average renders high peaks of violent crime invisible,” he concluded.

Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

An area where the administration can point to the effectiveness of its security plan is on detentions and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 suspects were apprehended between last October and November 2025 for high-impact offenses, according to government figures. More than 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tonnes of drugs confiscated.

“The former US president cannot claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s very politically profitable,” said Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Anger

However notwithstanding these actions, Mexico continues to be grappling with high violence, with a number of regions in the midst of cartel-fueled conflict. Recently there was a notable killing of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors killed in the last year.

Weeks after, thousands of youth demonstrated in the capital and across the country to voice their frustration at graft and cartel violence.

“The government shares [data] in a way to build a story of safety. Politically it’s very effective, socially it’s extremely questionable,” Vargas remarked.