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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently functions as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence is handed the prize. In practice, it creates an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or merely the greatest surprise.

However the current competition is profoundly different. The list of contenders is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference champions fading and recent also-rans improving together. Under an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and thrilling season, he's competing with five other elite candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his special ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of going rogue. It is an offense constructed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to create big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost each bet – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this isn't a typical campaign!

The area where his case comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But he comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which was not a certainty after his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and experience, he bet on first-timers. From the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still